Global GDP is not expected to recover to pre-coronavirus (2019) levels before late 2021. Global forecasts also mask disparities between countries and regions. Asia and North America will recover the fastest, with real GDP returning to pre-Covid levels this year, while Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East and Africa likely to achieve pre-Covid levels only in 2022. US growth in 2022 is forecast at 3.8% amidst rising inflation and the dwindling effects of the government's special pandemic-relief programmes. EU growth may be slightly lower than in the US reflecting the EU's greater dependence on global export demand, more limited fiscal stimulus and a slower structural adjustment following the crisis.
Growth in South Africa’s annual output has been trending lower, from a high of 4.2% in 2013 to only 0.1% in 2019, before the substantial 5.9% decline registered in 2020. The national lockdown-induced decline in 2020 was the second-largest annual contraction since 1920, when real GDP fell by 11.9%, and was nearly five times larger than the contraction of 1.2% which followed the global financial crisis in 2009. The deceleration in household real disposable income growth during the third quarter of 2021, had a negative effect on most consumption categories. Spending on durable goods was down 32.4% (q/q saar), while the comparable figures for semi-durables and non-durables were –19.1% and –11.9 respectively. Growth in real spending on services was 0%.
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