The composite leading business cycle indicator increased by 1.6% on a month-on-month basis in June 2015. Four of the nine component time series that were available for June 2015 increased, while five decreased. . Measured on a year-on-year basis, the index was down by 2.7%. Recent figures indicate that our recession probability indicator has remained stable over the past few months. Using smoothed data up to end-June 2015, the probability of a recession occurring within the next twelve months was around 34%.
Subscribers to EasyData can download the complete report in PDF format on www.easydata.co.za.