The latest composite leading indicator of economic activity compiled by the South African Reserve Bank, showed a further decline of 0.2% in March 2015 compared with February 2015. Measured on a year ago, the index declined by 1.6% - its 17th monthly year-on-year decline in a row.
Recent figures suggest a slight improvement in our probability indicator. Using smoothed data up to end-March 2015, the probability of a recession occurring within the next twelve months had subsided to around 27% compared with the more than 50% (point estimates) which were calculated in May and June of last year.