The latest composite leading indicator of economic activity compiled by the South African Reserve Bank, showed a deterioration of 0.9% in December 2014 compared with November. Based on a year ago, the in-dex also declined, and it has been doing so for the past fourteen months already. Recent figures still suggest a volatile environment for our probability indicator—even after smoothing. How-ever, using data up to November 2014, the probability of a recession occurring within the next twelve months had subsided to 32% compared with the more than 50% (point estimates) which was calculated in May and June of last year.
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